The 2024 presidential election is quickly approaching. Among the many questions and concerns surrounding this momentous event, many folks are concerned about what the potential results of the election could mean for their finances.
While there’s no way to predict with full certainty what will occur, historical data and expert insights give us a glimpse into what we might be able to expect.
What Has Happened Historically?
Using the stock market as a general indicator of economic health and performance, we can see that over the long term, returns for the S&P 500 trend up and to the right, regardless of who’s in office in the meantime.
While some sort of market volatility is normal in the short run, like following a presidential election, history shows that the market consistently generates positive gains over time. Using the most recent two presidents as an example, the value of the S&P 500 grew by more than 50% during both President Biden’s and President Trump’s first terms, according to chart data from Macrotrends.
What Do the Experts Think?
Back in real-time, certain financial experts, like Rob Haworth, a senior investment strategy director for U.S. Bank Asset Management, believe that early poll numbers indicate a tight race, causing little noticeable market impact thus far. However, this could change if there’s an indication that one candidate meaningfully pulls ahead.
Additionally, some note that while the presidential race is certainly important, the impact of election results on financial markets may also depend on whether the winning candidate’s party gains control of both houses of Congress.
When just one party controls both the executive and legislative branches, it can enable more swift policy changes, which could have a greater impact on Americans’ finances. However, in the current election cycle, this outcome doesn’t seem likely. Thus, a divided government may limit the extent of significant policy shifts that could have a larger financial impact over the coming years.
What We’ll Be Watching
Though it’s encouraging to think about the positive long-term gains of the stock market and the minimal headwinds of the current election thus far (the S&P 500 is up more than 37% over the past year), there are still valid concerns about economic factors like inflation, interest rates, and unemployment in today’s climate.
These issues remain front and center in the current election cycle and have real implications for the financial health of everyday Americans. In fact, according to a Pew Research Center poll from last month, 81% of registered voters say the economy will be very important to their vote during this election.
Thus, no matter who wins the election, understand that there are a variety of possible outcomes that could affect your finances – from shifts in tax policy to changes in trade regulations. Above all, it’s important to stay informed and get out and vote to make sure your voice is heard during this election.
